crapsbetting|国际金价下行逼近2300美元/盎司关口 有色市场降温看多预期仍存

During the May Day short holiday that just passed, international precious metal prices declined, driving the non-ferrous commodities in the domestic futures market down after the holiday.

As of the morning close on May 6, Shanghai gold in the main contract fell 1% to 547.Crapsbetting.28 yuan / g, Shanghai copper fell 0.72% to 81180 yuan / ton, Shanghai tin and Shanghai silver also fell.

Compared with previous highs, the main contract of Shanghai gold has fallen by about 7 per cent from 589.62 yuan / g in mid-April, while the price of COMEX gold has now fallen to about $2317 an ounce, a decline of more than 5 per cent from its high of $2448.8 per ounce.

During the May Day short holiday alone, spot gold in London fell from US $2322.54 / oz to US $2301.53 / oz, a drop of 0.9%, with an intraday low of US $2277.7 / oz, while spot silver dropped from US $26.818 / oz to US $26.552 / oz, a drop of 0.99%.

As of April 30, CFTC gold positions in the United States showed that total positions increased by 3542 to 519791 positions compared with the last count, while non-commercial positions increased by 1319 to 204210 positions. In terms of Comex inventories, gold stocks increased by 3.05t to 551.18 tons weekly as of May 3, while silver stocks increased by 50.76t to 9195.71 tons.

"during the May Day holiday, overseas financial markets diverged, European and American stock markets stopped falling and rose, commodities first suppressed and then rose, and most of the prices of non-ferrous metals showed a correction." As for the main reason for the pullback, Cheng Xiaoyong, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Financial Control Futures Research Center, believes that, on the one hand, US economic indicators are weaker than expected and the market is worried about weakening external demand for non-ferrous metals. In particular, the previous rise in the price of non-ferrous metals is partly due to higher market expectations for replenishment in the US manufacturing sector. But the decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI in the US ISM in April, as well as a decline in consumer confidence, meant the lagging impact of high interest rates and high inflation on the economy. At the same time, the expansion of domestic manufacturing industry has slowed down. Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4% in April, and production profits of industrial enterprises above the scale fell in March compared with the same period last year, and inventories of finished goods grew slowly, which meant that the manufacturing industry did not boost the consumption of non-ferrous metals and was not strong enough in the seasonal peak season. On the other hand, the boost of financial attributes to non-ferrous metals has been weakened in the short term, and the bulls have taken profits.

For the reasons for the recent weakening of precious metals, Zhan Dapeng, director of non-ferrous metals and senior researcher of precious metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, analyzed that the non-farm payrolls announced in the United States increased by 175000 in April, with an expected figure of 240000, with a previous value of 315000, which was much lower than expected. The Fed also kept its target policy rate unchanged at the FOMC meeting. Judging from the market reaction, the probability of not cutting interest rates in September has risen to 46.3 percent, and the market expects only one rate cut this year, but Powell said after the meeting that although the Fed will gain confidence in cutting interest rates for longer than expected, the next step is unlikely to raise interest rates, giving the market hope of cutting interest rates.

After nearly two months of continuous rally, the bull market in non-ferrous commodities, represented by precious metals, is in a pullback trend, although most of the current market remains bullish.

Cheng Xiaoyong believes that in addition to industrial silicon, which is still at the bottom stage because of oversupply in the short term,CrapsbettingHis non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel will continue to rise.

With regard to the logic that Nonferrous is still falling and strengthening, he analyzed that on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in April was much weaker than expected, the superimposed manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries weakened, and the lagging effects of high interest rates and high inflation shocks on the US economy showed. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen. In order to hedge liquidity risk, the Fed decided to halve the size of its treasury bond shrinking table in June at its May meeting. Monetary policy has taken a key step towards easing, and financial attributes will drive non-ferrous metals to rise again.

On the other hand, the momentum of domestic economic recovery continues, but the current strength is weak, but the pull of new energy on the consumption of non-ferrous metals and the weakening drag on real estate make it possible for domestic non-ferrous metal consumption to pick up.

In addition, in the second half of the year, the policy of upgrading equipment and replacing old with new ones took effect, and the growth of production and sales of household appliances, automobiles and other durable goods led to an improvement in consumption of non-ferrous metals.

In the interview, Zhan Dapeng also mentioned that from the results of the Fed's interest rate discussion and the reaction of the gold market, there is a consensus on US inflation stubbornly, the probability of postponing the Fed's interest rate cut is also increasing, and the gold market has also made a due adjustment response, but the range of adjustment is limited. In addition, from the CFTC position data, total gold positions and non-commercial net long positions are still high and there is no major adjustment, indicating that the current gold market is still hot or bullish.

However, he also admitted that as the timing of the Fed rate cut is uncertain again, and the geo-environment is inclined to control proliferation, the motivation for gold to continue to rise has declined, or there is a need for further adjustment.

Citic Construction Investment Futures Research News believes that geo-risk tends to ease after the rapid rise, the Fed interest rate cut is expected to be repeatedly postponed, although there is a pullback after the rise of precious metals, but the range of pullback is limited, and negative factors may not be fully reflected.

Maike futures analysis, mid-early April due to the geopolitical conflict caused by risk aversion, precious metals continued to rise. However, as the situation in the Middle East did not deteriorate significantly further and risk aversion receded, precious metals prices adjusted in late April, but by a limited extent. There is a risk of further downward adjustment in May when the Fed's monetary policy expectations are still tight. However, based on the medium-and long-term risk aversion attribute and currency attribute, the adjustment rate is still limited. Precious metals may show a trend of adjusting first and then rising in May.