50freespinsnodepositnowager| CEO of JPMorgan Chase: U.S. economy may have a hard landing, interest rates may still rise slightly

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said50freespinsnodepositnowagerThe U.S. economy may experience a "hard landing".

"Will we really see a hard landing?" Dimon said in an interview at JPMorgan Chase's 20th Global China Summit in Shanghai. Of course, how can someone who has read history say there is no chance?"

Dimon said the worst outcome for the U.S. economy would be "stagflation," in which inflation continues to rise but growth slows despite high unemployment.

"I see a range of outcomes, and the worst outcomes for all of us are stagflation, high interest rates and recession," he said. That means company profits will fall and we will get through it. I mean, the world has come through it, but I just think it's a higher possibility than others think."

However, he said that even if the U.S. economy fell into recession,"consumers were still in good shape."

Dimon pointed out that the U.S. unemployment rate has been below 4% for about two years, adding that wages, home prices and stock prices have been rising.

Still, Dimon emphasized that consumer confidence levels are low. "This seems to be mainly due to inflation... the extra money from the COVID-19 epidemic has been declining. It's still there, you know, at the bottom 50% it's gone. So I think it's normal and not bad."

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting released Wednesday showed policymakers 'concerns about inflation have intensified, with members of the Federal Open Market Committee saying they lack confidence in easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates.

Dimon said interest rates were still likely to rise "slightly".

"I think inflation is more difficult than people think. I think this is more likely than others think, mainly because the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus program is still in place and may still be driving this liquidity."

Is the world ready for higher inflation? "Not necessarily," he warned.

According to data from CME's Fed Observation tool, about half of traders surveyed expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points by September. The Fed had previously expected three 25-basis point rate cuts throughout 2024, but only if the market allowed.

When asked about the prospects and timing of a rate cut, Dimon said that despite market expectations "pretty good." But they're not always right."

He said: "The world thinks (inflation) will stay at 2%. Then he said he wanted to increase it to 6%, and then he said he wanted to increase it to 4%... Almost every time he made a 100% mistake. Why do you think this is the right time?"

Dimon said JPMorgan uses implicit curves to estimate interest rates, adding: "I knew that would be wrong. So just because it says X, it doesn't mean it's correct. It's always wrong. Looking back at any economic turning point in the past, people thought X, but two years later they were wrong."