carolinabingo| Domestic real estate and rebar surged sharply: favorable policies and recession may continue to affect the market
News summary
Market hype brings short-term gains to real estate stocks and rebarcarolinabingoHowever, as the hype subsides, uncertainty on the demand and cost sides may cause prices to return to fundamentals.
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[Hong Kong's real estate surge triggered black chain hype, rebar followed by fluctuations] After the May Day holiday, the domestic real estate market showed an upward trend, and rebar also showed a strong rise. The ensuing policy support has caused the real estate market to increase by as much as 15% in the short term, and rebar has also experienced a correction.carolinabingoThere has been a new wave of gains, with the highest increase of about 5% as of Friday. About 65% of rebar production is closely related to the real estate market, and new construction area and investment in the new housing market directly affect its future demand. The stock market rose more than the futures market, mainly because the current policy is more conducive to the new housing stock market, while the support for the newly started market is not significant. The cost side of rebar is greatly affected by the price of iron ore, which is highly global and lacks domestic pricing power. Under the influence of inflation logic, copper futures rose from 70,000 to nearly 90,000, an increase of 30%. The Hong Kong stock real estate market rallied and fell back, and the domestic real estate sector also showed signs of peak. LME copper and COMEX copper also showed signs of peaking, and the prices of precious metals gold and silver fell back at high levels. The stock market's reaction to the real estate policy shows that the speculation of funds on the policy is nearing an end, and both Hong Kong stocks and intra-market A-share real estate stocks have rebounded at low levels rather than long-term trends. The large fluctuations in precious metals and copper abroad indicate that inflation speculation is also coming to an end. At present, the foundation of speculation in the rebar market is fading, and future pricing may return to the fundamentals of supply and demand in the spot market. After macro policy hype subsides, it is unclear whether the real supply-demand relationship can support the continued rise of the market. With the increase in production capacity and inventories, coupled with the low season for traditional demand in summer, if policies fail to continue to stimulate the real estate market, this round of speculation may only stay at the market level. However, policy uncertainty still brings variables to the market. If new policies are introduced, they may bring new stimuli to the market. [The market fluctuates due to policy influence, and the future direction is in doubt]
