abugarciaambassadeur5501c3| MLF equivalent parity continues, and the RRR reduction and interest rate cut window may move back
◎ reporter Zhang Xinran
Financial data fluctuations superimposed ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued soon, the central bank's monetary policy toolsAbugarciaambassadeur5501c3Its use has attracted much attention from the market.
On May 15, the people's Bank of China carried out 2 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation and 125 billion yuan MLF (medium-term lending facility) operation, and the winning interest rates were the same as before. As there are 125 billion yuan MLF due this month, this operation to achieve the same amount of parity sequel.
This operation is within market expectations. Industry analysts believe that this is mainly related to the relatively loose funds in the market and the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system. The same amount of MLF will continue or replace the reduction in reserve requirements with the issuance of special treasury bonds to hedge against the impact of funds.
In terms of quantity, in the current reasonable and abundant liquidity environment, the demand of financial institutions for MLF is not strong, and the continuation of the same amount of MLF helps to maintain the balance between supply and demand in the market.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial markets department of Everbright Bank, said that at present, the market liquidity is loose and the interest rate on MLF funds is on the high side.Abugarciaambassadeur5501c3At the same time, due to the strong credit impulse in the first quarter of the year and short-term fluctuations in credit demand in the real economy, all these reasons led to the lack of MLF demand this month.
From a price point of view, MLF interest rates remain stable, reflecting the consideration of both internal and external equilibrium of monetary policy. "at present, the financing cost of the real economy is in a reasonable range. Moreover, in the context of volatile global markets, domestic policies need to take into account internal and external equilibrium. " Zhou Maohua said.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, also believes that the MLF operating rate remains unchanged in May in line with market expectations. First, the market interest rate has declined in an all-round way recently, and it has deviated from the policy interest rate center by a large margin, and the current market environment is not suitable for lowering the policy interest rate; second, the economic growth in the first quarter has exceeded expectations, and the recent macro data has been strong. Currently in the policy effect observation period, the urgency of interest rate reduction is not high.
Looking forward to the follow-up monetary policy operation, a number of market participants said that the RRR cut window may move backward.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that in order to tie in with the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the suppression of tax period fluctuations that will begin in mid-late May, MLF has ended its previous two-month contraction. Taking into account the current stable and loose liquidity as a whole, the smooth issuance of special treasury bonds, elongated rhythm, but also weakened the concentrated impact on liquidity, as well as in the prevention of capital precipitation idling, banks on the background of low demand for MLF, MLF has only maintained the same amount of sequel, the need to cut reserve requirements in the short term is not high.
It is expected that the people's Bank of China will pay close attention to domestic economic trends and overseas policy changes, and flexibly and effectively carry out open market operations to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. However, with the changes in the internal and external environment, based on the overall policy objectives, there is still some room for the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates during the year. " Wen Bin said.
With regard to the LPR quotation to be released this month, several industry insiders said that under the background of stable MLF interest rates and high pressure on banks' net interest margin, LPR may remain stable.
Zhou Maohua said that LPR is expected to remain stable this month for many reasons: at present, some banks are facing greater pressure on net interest margin; at present, policy interest rates are basically in line with potential economic growth; and the stability of domestic policy interest rates does not hinder the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the real economy.
"under the background that the MLF operating rate remains stable in May and the bank net interest margin is likely to narrow further in the near future, the LPR quotations for the two maturity varieties in May are expected to remain unchanged." Wang Qing said.