bandicootps4| The prices of rebar and hot rolling main contracts rose: supply increased and demand eased, and the issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds affected the market outlook
Newsletter summary
As of May 13, rebar and hot rolling main contract prices rose month-on-month, the output of the five major materials rebounded, rebar output decreased, downstream funds improved, steel demand for post-growth space, raw material stage peaked, steel price adjustment space is limited, it is recommended to do more near the cost of threaded electric furnace.
Text of news flash
[futures discount narrowed when futures prices rose]
As of May 13, the price of the main thread contract climbed to 3686 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan compared with the previous period, while the spot price in East China was 3620 yuan, up 10 yuan.Bandicootps4The rising water of futures was reduced to 66 yuan. Similarly, the closing price of the main hot rolling contract rose to 3820 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan over the previous month, while the spot offer in East China climbed 20 yuan to 3850 yuan, and the futures discount narrowed to 30 yuan.
[iron supply increases the output of five major timber and warms up]At present, the supply of iron continues to rise, especially the output of hot metal in blast furnace is increasing. As of May 10, the average daily total supply of iron has reached 286.Bandicootps4.50,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous month. During this period, the output of hot metal increased by 38000 tons month-on-week, and the daily consumption of scrap increased by 2000 tons. Weekly steel production rose to 13.3605 million tons last week, an increase of 4300 tons compared with the previous week. In terms of breakdown, the output of the five major timber increased by 80700 tons to 8.858 million tons compared with the previous month, while the output of non-major timber decreased by 76000 tons to 4.503 million tons.
[the list of demand increases varies from one to another]As of May 9, on the demand side, the five major materials needed to reach 9.2821 million tons, an increase of 394000 tons from the previous month. Specific to the rebar meter demand, decreased by 42000 tons to 261.9 tons, while the hot coil meter demand rebounded by 136000 tons to 3.231 million tons. Although the downstream funds have improved slightly, the overall financial situation is still weak. Future bond issuance will become a key factor affecting the future.
As of May 9, the total inventory of the five major materials was 18.866 million tons, down 424000 tons from the previous week. Total rebar stocks fell 313000 tonnes to 8.833 million tonnes from the previous month, while hot rolled stocks rose 20100 tonnes to 4.215 million tonnes. Although the output of the five major rebar has rebounded, the speed of removing stock has slowed down; the output of hot coil has increased and the phenomenon of inventory accumulation has reappeared.
[market point of view: there is still room for demand growth and steel price support is obvious]Although the output of the five major materials increased, the speed of removing the stock slowed down relatively before the festival, the rebar production decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, while the hot coil output increased again, and the social inventory pressure increased. Downstream funds have improved on a month-on-month basis, but overall they are still weak. If special treasury bonds and special bonds can be issued smoothly, steel demand still has the potential to grow in the case of post-demand, which will obviously support steel prices. In view of the fact that the raw material price has peaked in stages, but the cost support during the hot metal production period still exists, coupled with the recent shortage of scrap supply, the short-term electric furnace cost plays a significant role in supporting the steel price, so the downward adjustment of steel price is limited. The operation suggestion is to carry out multi-party operation near the cost of the threaded electric furnace. It is estimated that the target price of rebar is about 3900 yuan and that of hot coil is about 4100 yuan.