worldseriesofpoker2023| Does the ideal car have a future?

Yesterday, the ideal car released a quarterly report, the share price plummeted nearly 20%!

I still remember that in September last year, I posted that "Xiaopeng died after Wei came to die, Wei came to finish his ideal collapse?" In this paper, it is concluded that the success factor of Wei Xiaoli is the first dividend and finally lost to the intensification of competition. now, the ideal has followed in the footsteps of Xiaopeng and Wei, and Cyrus is the next to collapse!

Judging from the ideal quarterly report, it is really ugly.

On the revenue side, it was 25.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 36% from a year earlier.Worldseriesofpoker2023.4%Worldseriesofpoker2023:

Although the income growth rate is declining, it is still growing after all, but looking at the profits, it is really miserable!

First, the gross profit margin was 20.6% in the first quarter, slightly higher than 20.4% in the same period last year, but the gross profit margin in car building was 19.3%, down from 19.8% in the same period last year:

The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to price reduction promotion.

Although the gross profit margin is not good, in terms of net profit, ideal car made 590 million in the first quarter, although it fell by 36.8% compared with the same period last year, but it is profitable anyway, which is better than Xiaopeng and Weilai to lose money and make a profit.

However, if you take a closer look at the operating margin, it was negative 2.28% in the first quarter:

As a result, ideal Automobile's main business actually returned to losses in the first quarter, while net profit was actually non-main business profit. According to the statement, it generated 1.07 billion interest and investment income in the first quarter, much higher than the 420 million in the same period last year.

In terms of expense rate, sales and management expenses in the first quarter were 2.98 billion, up 81% from the same period last year, accounting for 11.6% of total revenue, much higher than 8.8% in the same period last year; R & D expenses were 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64.6%, accounting for 11.9% of total revenue, much higher than 9.9% in the same period last year:

The increase in fees is related to two models built by ideal cars in the first quarter of this year, namely, the MPV mega and the SUV L6.

Neither of these cars is a success, especially the mega is a huge failure, invested a lot of money, the result is cool, the cost is all in vain, becoming negative equity.

Simple calculation, the ideal first-quarter gross profit margin of 20.6%, the three fees add up to 23.5%, such a financial structure, how can it be really profitable?

Therefore, the solution for the ideal future is very simple, that is, either increase sales or control costs, the former looks more difficult at present, so we have to lay off staff and cut R & D pipelines to retain profits.

According to the ideal performance guidelines, sales are expected to be between 105 and 110000 vehicles in the second quarter and 25787 in April. Based on this, monthly sales from May to June may be about 40, 000:

Although the monthly sales of 40, 000 is not an ideal peak, it can still be seen in the past, but according to the weekly sales figures released by ideal Automobile, it is only about 8000 vehicles a week. Can the sales guidance for the second quarter meet the target?

When the sales target is in doubt, the ideal layoffs are relatively ruthless. The number of layoffs just reported is more than 5000, and the research and development of several pure electric models has also been pushed to next year, and the cost is expected to improve significantly.

Unfortunately, after this battle, the shortcomings of the ideal car were also exposed, that is, most of the previous success came from the initial dividend of the extended-range car, after Huawei and many other competitors increased the range of models and standard sofas, refrigerators, and color televisions, the attractiveness of the ideal car began to decline, and the evil consequences of increased competition eventually appeared on their own.

In terms of profit margins, even if it can keep 20 per cent in the future, its profitability will be no different from that of Toyota, a traditional fuel carmaker. If so, the market will give a very harsh valuation, based on the price-to-earnings ratio. Ideally, with a net interest rate of 8 per cent and annual income of 200 billion, the net profit is only 16 billion, corresponding to the current valuation of 10 times, close to Toyota's price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 times.

But the question is, when will the ideal income reach 200 billion (123.9 billion in 2023 and 177.4 billion expected by analysts in 2024)? In addition, when will the net interest rate target of 8% be achieved when the competition is still fierce?

A series of uncertain circumstances, investors can only operate according to sales data, if monthly sales can not return to growth, stock prices will be difficult to perform!